Arguing against Winnability

Many Filipinos view elections as basically a horse race or  a cock fight and there in lies part of the problem.

A great number of columnists and even bloggers write about elections every three years using the framework and language of gaming.  The focus is on who will most likely win rather than the correct process of choosing a leader.

On reading some of the articles, you’d probably wonder why they use up so much space supporting the idea that one candidate will win over another candidate.  In a way, it’s as if they have some sort of personal stake in the victory of one candidate over another.

A number wittingly or unwittingly engage in discussions that actually spread the propaganda of one candidate’s winnability, pointing to surveys conducted by various organizations and making a big deal about the size of the sample or the techniques used.

The question that most columnists fail to answer is whether or not the most winnable candidate can in fact deliver whatever promises or commitments he or she makes.

In the end, one’s favored candidate may actually win and in the days after the proclamation of the candidate, people are filled with euphoria.  It is only after the euphoria wears off that people realize that the circumstances they had hoped would disappear with the victory of their winnable candidate didn’t go away.

Now, having looked at the electoral contest as basically a gamble, the voters who helped the winnable candidate win are now uncertain of whether the candidate will actually fulfill any of his promises.  They are certain that they had won something, as to what that something is, nobody knows.

They look around for things that they can hold the candidate accountable for and review his promises, only to realize that the promises were vague and even non-committal.  Worse, the recently elected candidate begins to embark upon actions that he had never told the people he’d do.

Rather than focus on winnability, columnists and pre-eminent bloggers should focus more on what the candidates say they will do and get them to reveal the details of whatever they promise to do.

After asking “What will you do if elected?”, the columnist and blogger should also ask “How are you going to do this?”

By doing so, you find out who’s bluffing and who is serious about their campaign promises; you’ll find out if the candidate can deliver what he promises to deliver just by how he or she answers how.

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