Initially, the investigation in the Senate and the Lower House seemed to focus on whether or not ghost Pag-IBIG accounts were really created by Globe Asiatique.  However, as the investigation progressed, Senator Cerge Osmena seemed more interested in embarrassing former Vice President and HUDCC Chairman Noli De Castro with pointed questions about his relationship with Undersecretary Lucille Ortile — the former HUDCC Secretary General.

Repeatedly, Osmena asked De Castro, “So, she is your number 2? She is your number 2?”

And the rest of the senate investigation went the way of a public scourging, with officers of the fund being portrayed as inutile and stupid for having entered into an Memorandum of Agreement with Globe Asiatique.

So far Philippine legislators in both the Upper and Lower Chambers of congress have failed dismally to answer the question that Pag-IBIG Fund contributors are asking, ARE MY PAG-IBIG CONTRIBUTIONS SAFE?

After Conrado De Quiros endorsed Noynoy Aquino for President, we sort of lost interest in reading and discussing his column in the Philippine Daily Inquirer.

It was not because we disagreed with his choice for President, but rather, it was because we disagreed with the non-logic that  supported his conclusion that Noynoy Aquino would be a better President than all other contenders.

In his column today titled Reading 101, De Quiros attempts to clarify his position vis-a-vis the dawning Yellow Administration.

Perhaps, more than rebutting a reader’s comment, the column points at the political forces that may be pulling Noynoy Aquino in different directions.

If I read it right, it seems that his tirade is directed against the combined forces of the Liberal Party, Hyatt 10, and The Firm — groups which also backed Aquino’s bid for the Presidency.

It seems Conrado is saying that Noynoy, in the coming days of his administration, will have a whole bunch of tough choices between following the voice of volunteers as well as the Spirit of EDSA 86 and following the dictates of people who deal in compromises.

A lesser leader will perhaps think that this situation may call for choosing one or the other.  He may think that this is a moralist dichotomy between good and evil — a theme so heavily played out in Noynoy’s campaign.  In reality, such dichotomies are merely instruments in pushing for an agenda.

A more politically astute mind would probably see it as a classical situation described by Machiavelli in The Prince.  Roughly recounted here, in the coming days Noynoy will have to make a lot of decisions between serving the interests of the people who voted for him and serving the interest of the people whose finances as well as political connections helped him win the campaign.

Machiavelli describes Noynoy’s situation quite aptly:

THOSE who solely by good fortune become princes from being private citizens have little trouble in rising, but much in keeping atop; they have not any difficulties on the way up, because they fly, but they have many when they reach the summit. Such are those to whom some state is given either for money or by the favour of him who bestows it; as happened to many in Greece, in the cities of Ionia and of the Hellespont, where princes were made by Darius, in order that they might hold the cities both for his security and his glory; as also were those emperors who, by the corruption of the soldiers, from being citizens came to empire. Such stand simply upon the goodwill and the fortune of him who has elevated them — two most inconstant and unstable things. Neither have they the knowledge requisite for the position; because, unless they are men of great worth and ability, it is not reasonable to expect that they should know how to command, having always lived in a private condition; besides, they cannot hold it because they have not forces which they can keep friendly and faithful.

In any case, it is a tough position to be in and, perhaps, only a real leader will be able to finesse the situation.

It was a melodrama acted out in Congress for the benefit of the presumptively elected President, who now crows “I, Noynoy Aquino, will fight for this bill and make it a priority of my administration.”

Great! Let’s see if this Wilderness Boy really work for the passage of a law that basically does nothing more than what is already being done now.

Force of Law my ass.

In 2009, a few bloggers began writing about it and one idea that stuck out was that having a Freedom of Information Act in the Philippines would have helped immensely in unraveling the truth behind the ‘Hello Garci’ tapes.

The US has had an FIA since 1974 and its history is closely tied to the Watergate Scandal.  Part of the FIA and FIA related statutes is that all communication (after the Watergate Scandal) made by the President is required by law to be recorded.

In the hotly and hysterically discussed Philippine FIA, there is not a single provision that states that all the President’s communications (including cellphone calls, tweets, skype, etcetera) are deemed public records.

Weeks before President Barak Obama was to be sworn in, several news items and opinion columns asked the question of whether Barak would retain his twitter/facebook capable Blackberry.  And, this was when the whole FIA or FOIA was discussed years after the Watergate Scandal, mainly on the point that Barak’s direct communications with the world at large through twitter might need to be screened.

Without a provision in the Philippine FIA bill that states that all the President’s communications as well as the communications of his/her heads of agencies should be recorded and deemed part of public record, the FIA won’t be able to do much.

In local parlance, it will be a BORLOLOY LAW.

In the Philippines, almost all of the politicians gunning for various seats in 2010 are using Facebook to spread their propaganda.  Some have done so quite effectively and some have merely used Facebook as the internet equivalent of pasting posters on walls.

The unsophisticated approach to would be to simply gun for visibility, as if the mere visibility of what is easily revealed as propaganda can convince people to vote for a candidate.

It could be in the form of a link or uploaded photo that screams, “Vote for me! Vote for me!” or the equally droll “This candidate is the best candidate because I say so!”

I guess the practice works for the so-called masa or jologs crowd whom I will forever deride, but not for the more serious thinkers who scour the internet not just for information but sound and well articulated positions on candidates.  Moreover, these aren’t just disembodied brains scouring the internet and you have to consider that apart from purely logical/cognitive input, these people are also drawn to what I refer to as  ‘authentic human interaction”.

There are people on the internet who go about campaigning for their candidate on the internet like complete automatons and it is a real turn off.

I think the higher level game in campaigning for a particular candidate is not really how well you SEO a website or blog, but how well you articulate your thoughts and convey them in a sincere, understandable manner.  Moreover, if it is at all possible, one must behave on the internet as they would think their candidate would behave.

I guess the simplest way to say what I am trying to say is this: Your behavior on the internet speaks more loudly about your candidate than any slogan or picture you can point to.

Pia Cayetano. Running for Senator.

Risa Hontiveros-Barraquiel. Running for Senator under LP.

Shalani Soledad. Running for Valenzuela as councilor. Girlfriend of Noynoy Aquino.

Kata Inocencio. Running for Senator under Bangon Pilipinas.

Imelda Papin. Singer running for Senator under KBL.

Aiko Melendez. Running for Vice Mayor of Quezon City.

(This page will be updated.)

Fireworks disasters. Every year, the Philippine Department of Health (DOH) issues warnings to the public not to rig their own fireworks display and every year people ignore the warning.  They either end up in the hospital or the morgue, the lucky ones find themselves unhurt as they watch their entire village (shanty town) burn to the ground.

The May 2010 elections. All eyes are on who is going to win and right now the race seems to be favoring Manny Villar, Noynoy Aquino, and Joseph Ejercito Estrada.  If you figure that for one reason or another, Estrada’s candidacy will be junked in the middle of the campaign period, then it might still be a three cornered fight with Gilbert Teodoro or Dick Gordon as the third man for an improbable win.

Related to the May 2010 elections are the usual campaign stories:

Miting de Avances. The bigger the candidate, the grander the campaign launch.  Expect Manny Villar to pull all stops.

Negative campaign advertisements. This will become the norm.

Election related violence. More people will get killed in tight electoral contests.

Electoral fraud. Despite all the anti-electoral fraud features of Smartmatic-TIM’s automated election system, retail electoral fraud will abound.

Bigger typhoons starting in June or earlier. Typhoon Ondoy was a dress rehearsal, watch out for bigger disasters this year and perhaps even bigger floods.

Continued conflict with various rebel groups. Expect the new President to confront new clashes between the military and muslim or communist groups.

Economic downturn. After all the campaign money has been spent, it’ll be time to cash in the chips and the Filipino people will be left holding the bill.  There will be no money to get the economy restarted right after the elections and those that made money during the elections will most likely hold on to what they’ve got till the economy starts picking up again.  Prices will rise and so will unemployment.

Terrorism. Yes, new kidnappings and attacks will happen around September.

Widespread food shortage. Supplies of rice will dwindle dramatically as the Philippines experiences one typhoon after the other.

Power shortages. Just like the ones we experienced in the early nineties.

Fuel shortages. There won’t be enough gas or diesel, at any price.

Dick Gordon is the real underdog in the 2010 elections

Filipinos love underdogs and some politicians will cast themselves in this mold.

Manny Villar, for one, has come out consistently with commercials highlighting the fact that he was once a poor boy who lived in Tondo but rose to financial and political prominence through industry and patience.

Noynoy Aquino on the other hand tries to dress himself in the image of his dead parents (Ninoy Aquino and Cory Aquino), both of whom were once underdogs in a fight against President Ferdinand Marcos.

But, in the 2010 elections, these two candidates are no underdogs but giants in the realm of Philippine politics.

Villar’s propaganda team has long established his winnability on all fronts.  He was the survey front runner for quite some time before Noynoy Aquino came into the picture, he has the political backing of one of the country’s oldest parties, he claims to have the biggest war chests at P10 Billion, and he has extensive political machinery on the ground — meaning full time campaigners in every province and city of the country.

Aquino is a serious threat to Villar.  For one, he has become immensely popular especially after the death of his mother Cory Aquino and is largely viewed by many as not corrupt — which is a supreme advantage over Villar, especially when the zeitgeist calls for an end to corruption in government.  Aquino can also draw from deep ties with the country’s oldest, richest and most influential families — which probably makes it unnecessary to have an actual political party backing him.

As for his means of financing a Presidential campaign, it is a bit of deception to say that he needs volunteers and donations from his sister Kris Aquino.  In reality, Aquino has access to a lot of financiers because he is reputably the most winnable candidate.  Beyond this, any claim to needing either volunteers or donations is in a way nothing more than a great bargaining position with which to meet all offers for services and products normally needed during a campaign — he can drive prices down by merely saying that he already has volunteers rendering the service or people donating the products.

One can argue that Gilbert Teodoro is an underdog because he ranks low in terms of popularity when compared to Villar and Aquino, but that’s discounting the support he can get from the Macapagal-Arroyo administration as well as from his side of the Cojuanco clan.  He also has a pretty well known party backing him and former President Fidel Ramos endorsed him as his choice for President.

Needless to say, former President Joseph Ejercito Estrada is not an underdog too being a former champion of the 1998 Presidential race.  He is still potent, despite everything else that has happened to him.

So, among the 5 contenders, the only one without anything going for him is Senator Dick Gordon.

He has the Bagumbayan Party, true, but it’s a party that was only recently recognized.  It doesn’t have big name stalwarts or a lot of money.  During its grand convention, it raised P10 Million — part of which was used to pay for the convention’s expenses.

He doesn’t have money, at least, not in the supposed billions that is needed to run a Presidential campaign.

A lot of people are not quite sure why Dick Gordon even filed as a Presidential candidate because, just by the looks of it, he is bound to lose or at least, it is a highly improbable win.

As a politician, Gordon has actually gone quite far and one would ask, “Why cap such a long and illustrious career with defeat?”

He started out as the youngest Con-Con delegate in 1971, distinguishing himself as the one who opposed the granting of an additional term to then President Ferdinand Marcos and proposing the Joint Use of the Subic Naval facility — coming up with the plans for what would later become the Subic Bay Metropolitan Authority, 20 years ahead of his time.

He distinguished himself as Mayor of Olongapo when he turned it into a model city, recognized the world over as a model for urban renewal — pre-dating by a number of years the transformation of New York City by Rudolf Giuliani.

He founded and became the Chairman of Subic Bay Metropolitan Authority, the country’s first and best freeport.

Now, both feats mentioned are perhaps even more astounding if you consider that these were accomplished in the worst possible time in the history of Central Luzon.  It was a time when the American had left Subic and when mount Pinatubo erupted — two great disasters, one on top of the other, barely a year apart.

He then became Tourism Secretary, leading the country’s tourism industry into a resurgent phase — rescuing it from declining tourism arrivals in 2001 and achieving foreign tourist arrivals of 2 million a year in 2003.

He then ran for Senate, promising political reform and employment generation.

He delivered on these promises with the Amended Automated Election Law and the Tourism Act of 2009 which will spur tourism to the levels achieved in Hongkong, Singapore, and Malaysia.

Along the way, he passed laws that allowed Filipino World War II veterans to receive benefits from the United States Government without canceling out the benefits given by the Philippine government.  He passed the International Humanitarian Law, Food Donation Act, and a host of other laws.

This from a man who basically describes himself as a “shooter in the bench”, referring to his being an executive in a legislative position.

So, why is Dick Gordon running?

Gordon once pointed out that the Presidency is something that must be earned by the merit of one’s work.  He explained that he has lived his life and accomplished what he has accomplished by working hard to produce the best results possible.

This isn’t unlike the lowly office clerk who rises to become the corporation’s CEO through merit.

A great number of columnists and even bloggers write about elections every three years using the framework and language of gaming.  The focus is on who will most likely win rather than the correct process of choosing a leader.

On reading some of the articles, you’d probably wonder why they use up so much space supporting the idea that one candidate will win over another candidate.  In a way, it’s as if they have some sort of personal stake in the victory of one candidate over another.

A number wittingly or unwittingly engage in discussions that actually spread the propaganda of one candidate’s winnability, pointing to surveys conducted by various organizations and making a big deal about the size of the sample or the techniques used.

The question that most columnists fail to answer is whether or not the most winnable candidate can in fact deliver whatever promises or commitments he or she makes.

In the end, one’s favored candidate may actually win and in the days after the proclamation of the candidate, people are filled with euphoria.  It is only after the euphoria wears off that people realize that the circumstances they had hoped would disappear with the victory of their winnable candidate didn’t go away.

Now, having looked at the electoral contest as basically a gamble, the voters who helped the winnable candidate win are now uncertain of whether the candidate will actually fulfill any of his promises.  They are certain that they had won something, as to what that something is, nobody knows.

They look around for things that they can hold the candidate accountable for and review his promises, only to realize that the promises were vague and even non-committal.  Worse, the recently elected candidate begins to embark upon actions that he had never told the people he’d do.

Rather than focus on winnability, columnists and pre-eminent bloggers should focus more on what the candidates say they will do and get them to reveal the details of whatever they promise to do.

After asking “What will you do if elected?”, the columnist and blogger should also ask “How are you going to do this?”

By doing so, you find out who’s bluffing and who is serious about their campaign promises; you’ll find out if the candidate can deliver what he promises to deliver just by how he or she answers how.

According to most Chinese Zodiac references, people born in the year of the Tiger are described to be “Unpredictable, rebellious, colorful, powerful, passionate, daring, impulsive, vigorous, stimulating, sincere, affectionate, humanitarian, generous. Can be restless, reckless, impatient, quick-tempered, obstinate, selfish, aggressive, unpredictable.”

According to Wikipedia:

The Tiger , is one of the 12-year cycle of animals which appear in the Chinese zodiac related to the Chinese calendar.  The Year of the Tiger is associated with the earthly branch symbol 寅.

People born within these date ranges can be said to have been born in the “Year Of The Tiger,” while also bearing the following elemental sign:

8 February 1902 – 28 January 1903: Water Tiger
26 January 1914 – 13 February 1915: Wood Tiger
13 February 1926 – 1 February 1927: Fire Tiger
31 January 1938 – 18 February 1939: Earth Tiger
17 February 1950 – 5 February 1951: Metal Tiger
5 February 1962 – 24 January 1963: Water Tiger
23 January 1974 – 10 February 1975: Wood Tiger
9 February 1986 – 28 January 1987: Fire Tiger
28 January 1998 – 15 February 1999: Earth Tiger
15 February 2010 – 3 February 2011: Metal Tiger

Chinese Astrologer Paul Ng has indicated that the Philippines will be among the countries plagued by political instability in 2010, along with countries in South America and Africa.

Interestingly, Paul Ng has advise for Gloria Macapagal Arroyo who was born in the year of the Pig and perhaps it comes belatedly.  The advise basically warns her to be careful of her reputation.

Regarding Noynoy Aquino who was born in the year of the rat, Paul Ng says that Aquino would favor traveling and that big changes in his work would happen.  He also predicts that Noynoy may be married next year, possibly to a foreigner.

Even The Center’s survey, which claims to show Noynoy Aquino took a stationary dive (meaning the ratings of other contenders for the Presidency surged while his ratings stood still),  says that Aquino continues to enjoy wide lead over Villar.

Pulse Asia says:

The survey conducted Dec. 6-10 nationwide among 1,800 adults, showed Aquino with 45 percent of the respondents, followed by Sen. Manny Villar (Nacionalista) with 23 percent, former President Erap Estrada (Puwersa ng Masang Pilipino) with 19 percent, and former Defense Secretary Gibo Teodoro (Lakas-Campi-CMD) with 8 percent.

Social Weather Stations says:

Once again, Liberal Party standard-bearer Senator Benigno Simeon “Noynoy” Aquino III has topped a nationwide survey, with almost half of the respondents saying they will vote form him as president.

Results of the December 5 to 10 survey conducted by pollster Social Weather Stations (SWS) showed that 46 percent of 2,100 respondents had chosen Aquino. The same survey also showed Aquino’s running-mate, Sen. Manuel “Mar” Roxas II, leading the pack of vice presidential bets in 2010.

Makati Business Club says:

The Makati Business Club, in a Dec. 8-18 survey among its members, gave a 61-percent vote to Noynoy Aquino and only seven percent to Manny Villar, the biggest businessman among presidential candidates.

The members of the MBC, composed of over 800 top executives from some 450 of the largest firms in the country, were asked in a mailed survey: “Who among the candidates running in the 2010 elections would you prefer to see as the next Philippine president and vice president?”

Close to 13 percent of MBC members participated in the survey. About 85 percent of the respondents were Filipinos, while seven percent were foreigners. Eight percent did not indicate their nationality. They were not asked to explain their choices.

At present, while surveys put Noynoy Aquino in the lead, we may see solid campaigning from other contenders gaining some headway in the next few days.

Among the contenders, Senator Manny Villar’s camp may be in the best position to grab the lead position from Noynoy Aquino.  The son of the late Senator Noynoy Aquino and former President Cory Aquino may have come roaring out of the starting gate and may have grabbed the lead only momentarily, what is needed by Noynoy’s camp at this stage is a means of sustaining the pace of his campaign’s forward momentum.

Villar, having started campaigning much earlier than Noynoy Aquino, has already built up a steady forward momentum.  His machinery on the ground has been up and running for nearly two years now, perhaps even longer.  His campaign (both media and ground operations) may have saturated voting populations across the Philippines more deeply.

Aquino, while being immensely popular is still in the process of touching base and closing links with supporters in provinces.  While Noynoy Aquino’s media campaign has been effective, Filipino political culture still places a high value on national candidates their home town or province.